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Re: Othello Quiz #3
Posted By: Ian Shaw In Response To: Othello Quiz #3 (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 29 November 2006, at 5:27 p.m.
The safest play is 6/1 6/2, leaving only 4 shots.
If White hits one of those shots, Blue hits back with any 6, 51, 42, 54. A few residual shots means Blue must win at least 2/4 games despite the open six point.
White leaves shots on double shots on 61, 62, 53, 43, single shots on 64, 65. All the single shots are better than 11/36; I'll estimate 1/2 the blots are hit, so Blue wins 6/12.
White clears on 55, 44 and I'll throw in 22 & 33 as a clearance combined. White's speed board should make her a solid favourite, so I'll assume she cashes those games.
So far, Blue wins 8/19 games. After other the position is fairly similar, so I'll give Blue pro-rata 7 of the remaining 17 games. That totals 15/36 or about 42% wins.The quiz-factor play is 13/8 13/9 - it's a better racing play than playing inside - but it doesn't look right to me. That's 24 immediate hits by White, and less returns for Blue. It's a better racing play than playing inside.
Perhaps a good compromise is to play 16/11 6/2 or 16/12 6/1. Either leaves 15 shots. My head is hurting to much too carry on with a detailed analysis. Noting that there are lots of returns if WHite hits, and that it's a better racing play than 6/2 6/1, I'm plumping for 16/12 6/1.
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