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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout + Commentary
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Ballard v. Sylvester - 1989 (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 16 May 2007, at 5:15 a.m.
Kit says: Ballard's play is reasonable, starting the next point in sequence. It is not serious if he is hit, since he has an advanced anchor & Sylvester has no board. It is definitely correct for Ballard to make an aggressive flexible play in this type of position -- plays such as 13/6 or 13/8 24/22 are definitely wrong. Ballard has the stronger board and the better development -- he must attempt to improve on it while Sylvester's men are all stacked up.
However, Ballard's play has some weaknesses. The fourth man on the 8 pt. is of little use & the midpoint is now stripped. If Sylvester jumps out with his last man Ballard will be forced to hit from the midpoint, losing control of the outfield. I think Ballard would be slightly better off playing 13/11, 6/1*. There is always an advantage in putting your opponent on the bar, since he can't use his full roll to make points. Also Ballard would stop the back man from escaping this roll, and have double coverage of his outer board. The man on the ace point is not so bad -- if hit he can recirculate, if not then making the ace point may be good, since Ballard's position has blitz potential. As long as Ballard has the enemy five point he does not have to worry about being involved in a priming battle, so making the ace point is not terrible.
Stick adds: Give him awkward numbers, keep flexible, keep control over all parts of the board.
The score (after 1 game) is: Nack 1, Joe 0 (match to 19 points)
Move number 7: Nack to play 25
Nack 161
Joe 151 Position ID: 4PPgAyCw5+CAIQ Match ID: MAF1AhAAAAAA
• Nack moves 13/8 6/4
# Ply Move Equity 1 R 13/11 6/1* +0.2498
0.5398 0.1943 0.0046 - 0.4602 0.0915 0.0041 +0.1865 +0.2498 0.0019 0.0025 0.0004 - 0.0019 0.0017 0.0004 0.0050 0.0121 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 972 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063435414 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 13/6 +0.2217 ( -0.0281)
0.5362 0.1745 0.0032 - 0.4638 0.0739 0.0026 +0.1766 +0.2217 0.0017 0.0021 0.0004 - 0.0017 0.0014 0.0003 0.0041 0.0118 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 972 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063435414 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] • 3 R 13/8 6/4 +0.2081 ( -0.0417)
0.5373 0.1672 0.0042 - 0.4627 0.0920 0.0044 +0.1517 +0.2081 0.0019 0.0023 0.0005 - 0.0019 0.0017 0.0004 0.0049 0.0117 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 972 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063435414 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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