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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 22 November 2009, at 12:55 a.m.

In Response To: Money game cube action (Timothy Chow)

As people have correctly assessed, it's a monster cube, and the take/drop decision is very close.

Over the board, this one slipped by me, and the reasons were psychological more than anything else. Scroll down for the position on my previous roll. Though 2-1 was a great roll for me and 4-4 was a terrible roll for my opponent, it didn't feel to me that I could have possibly gone from ND/beaver to RD/P in a single turn. I was unduly concerned that White was at the edge of my prime and still had a huge racing lead, while my back checkers didn't have control of the outfield yet. I forgot that "every roll is a cube decision!"

gnubg	66
tchow	141
Position ID: z3sGAAjY7QYAHA Match ID: UQkLAJAAGAAA

Alert: missed double ( -0.179)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.513
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.995
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.005
3.	No double	+0.815	-0.179
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player tchow owns 2-cube 0.741 0.131 0.003 - 0.259 0.101 0.001 +0.513 +0.815 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.005 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.756 0.138 0.004 - 0.244 0.095 0.001 +1.114 +0.995 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.008 0.010
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 841027873 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The position on my previous roll was:

user	74
gnubg	144
Position ID: 894GAAjw7gYAHA Match ID: UYkIAJAAGAAA

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		-0.066
	0.517 0.081 0.001 - 0.483 0.179 0.005
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.123
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.877
3.	Double, take	-0.410	-0.534
Proper cube action:		No redouble, beaver (37.8%)

Messages In This Thread

• Money game cube action
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 21 November 2009, at 12:18 a.m.
  • Money game cube action
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 21 November 2009, at 4:24 p.m.
  • Money game cube action
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 21 November 2009, at 5:35 p.m.
  • Money game cube action
    Coolrey -- Saturday, 21 November 2009, at 6:55 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 22 November 2009, at 12:55 a.m.