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3-2 rev split - 3-2 vs 5-2 split -3-2
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: 3-2 rev split - 3-2 vs 5-2 split -3-2 (Thomas Myhr)
Date: Wednesday, 2 December 2009, at 4:30 a.m.
Nack understands the openings better than I do, so you should pay more attention to what he says than to what I say, but for it's worth, here's my take.
Hitting loose on your 2-point or 1-point on the second move is a very committal play. A checker that deep must either be hit back (often at an inconvenient time) or else limits your gameplan options—you can no longer effectively prime, and the checker cannot be used to make a more active point or threaten to hit. For this reason, hitting loose on the 2-point or 1-point should only be considered when your alternatives all have some serious drawbacks, or when you have some clear use for the tempo.
For example, suppose your opponent splits or runs on the opening roll and you roll 5x, and there isn't an obviously strong way to play it. Should you use the 5 to hit on the 1-point? Well, if your opponent split with a 6 to your bar, then you do have a clear use for the tempo: you might get another double shot at that blot on your bar point, which you really don't want him to make. Typically it's right to hit in such a situation (e.g., with 64S 54 or 62S 52). But if your opponent has run into the outfield then at best you will get a single direct shot at the blot, and it's not threatening to make an important point, so hitting isn't worth it (e.g., with 63R 51 or 62R 52, don't hit on the 1-point).
For another example, if your opponent opens with 21S or 41S or 51S, and you roll 41, do you hit? Here, part of the equation is that any other way to play the 41 is weak. And once you've hit as deeply as the 2-point, moving it deeper to the 1-point is a small price to pay for putting a second checker up. So the double hit is correct here.
Coming back to 32Z 32 and 52S 32, I would approach the question with the presumption that you should not hit on the 1-point unless you can point to some specific compensation. In the case of 32Z 32, the extra tempo may give you the chance to pick up the other blot. Is that worth it? Maybe. Moving from the 3-point to the 1-point costs more than moving from the 2-point to the 1-point, but it is still a pretty small cost. It's a tough decision. Indeed, if you examine the rollouts closely, you'll see that the two alternative ways to play the 2 come out pretty close to the double hit in equity. With 52S 32, the possibility of picking up a second blot is no longer there, so the balance tips further away from hitting.
Finally, for another example, do you double hit with 52S 52? Here we cannot point to any clear use for the tempo, and playing either 52D or 52S in response to 52S is constructive without being vulnerable. Thus the double hit is certainly wrong, and even hitting on the 3-point is doubtful.
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