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54S-63 at GS

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 3:03 p.m.

I posted a 1k version of this a while ago. I was surprised by how well $ (Slot 13-4) played considering it was GS.

It was interesting to watch this rollout in progress. $ was ahead after 5k, H (Hit 13-7, 8-5*) was ahead after 10k and R finished in front after 15k. As Nack and Stick keep telling us, short rollouts of opening positions are not reliable.

I may extend this further at some point since it is certainly still TCTC.

I am surprised by the gammons lost by the first three plays. Running, the score thematic play, loses the most gammons. Slotting, the anti-thematic play, loses the least.

54S-63 [R H1 $4 X11 Z11 U37 S43] - 15k

The score (after 0 games) is: GNU_bg 0, user 1 (match to 2 points, Crawford game)

Move number 2: user to play 63

GNU_bg	158
user	167
Position ID: 4PPgASHgc/ABMA Match ID: 8AlPAAAACAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	24/15	-0.4100
			0.4497 0.1471 0.0207 - 0.5503 0.1547 0.0150 -0.4100 -0.4100 0.0007 0.0017 0.0008 - 0.0007 0.0006 0.0007 0.0018 0.0018
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/7 8/5*	-0.4111 ( -0.0011)
			0.4459 0.1669 0.0253 - 0.5541 0.1515 0.0364 -0.4111 -0.4111 0.0008 0.0017 0.0009 - 0.0008 0.0007 0.0010 0.0022 0.0022
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/4	-0.4142 ( -0.0041)
			0.4358 0.1575 0.0206 - 0.5642 0.1429 0.0237 -0.4142 -0.4142 0.0007 0.0017 0.0008 - 0.0007 0.0006 0.0008 0.0018 0.0018
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	24/18 8/5*	-0.4211 ( -0.0111)
			0.4434 0.1523 0.0240 - 0.5566 0.1540 0.0226 -0.4211 -0.4211 0.0007 0.0017 0.0009 - 0.0007 0.0006 0.0009 0.0019 0.0019
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	24/21 13/7	-0.4213 ( -0.0113)
			0.4293 0.1540 0.0220 - 0.5707 0.1400 0.0223 -0.4213 -0.4213 0.0007 0.0017 0.0009 - 0.0007 0.0006 0.0008 0.0018 0.0018
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	24/21 24/18	-0.4473 ( -0.0372)
			0.4424 0.1425 0.0217 - 0.5576 0.1661 0.0148 -0.4473 -0.4473 0.0011 0.0029 0.0014 - 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0030 0.0030
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	7	R	24/18 13/10	-0.4530 ( -0.0429)
			0.4300 0.1410 0.0178 - 0.5700 0.1565 0.0202 -0.4530 -0.4530 0.0011 0.0028 0.0013 - 0.0011 0.0011 0.0013 0.0030 0.0030
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 54S-63 at GS
  David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 3:03 p.m.
  • 54S-63 at GS
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 3:10 p.m.
    • 54S-63 at GS
      David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 3:32 p.m.
  • 54S-63 at GS
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 9:20 p.m.
    • Nacbrac conventions
      Stick -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 9:32 p.m.
      • Nacbrac conventions
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 11:33 p.m.
  • 54S-63 at GS
    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 9:45 p.m.
    • 54S-63 at GS
      David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 10:07 p.m.
      • 54S-63 at GS
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 10:16 p.m.