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51S-62 at GG revisited

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 3:32 p.m.

There was previous discussion about $ (Slot 13-5) slotting into the double shot.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=56051

Neil did a 4k XG rollout showing R (Run 24-16) best by a small amount.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=56288

I've completed a 15k rollout which has $ as best by a greater margin than the eariler 5k GNU rollout. I would certainly discount this result in consideration of GNU's overvaluing of slotting positions. Note that the numbers for R are similar for both rollouts. The difference is in $.

My instincts are that considering everything, $ is probably best by a small amount. It is certainly TCTC.

I struggle to believe that GNU could be off by .0080 (actually .0080 + .0020 = .0100) at GG. If it is, that would call into question quite a few other rollouts we rely upon.

The score (after 0 games) is: GNU_bg 1, user 0 (match to 2 points, Crawford game)

Move number 2: user to play 62

GNU_bg	161
user	167
Position ID: 4PPgASjgc/ABMA Match ID: 8AlLABAAAAAA

• user moves 13/5

Messages In This Thread

• 51S-62 at GG revisited
  David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 3:32 p.m.
  • MET - question for Neil
    David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 3:33 p.m.
    • MET - question for Neil
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 4:18 p.m.
      • MET - question for Neil
        David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 4:46 p.m.
        • MET - question for Neil
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 6:01 p.m.
  • 51S-62 at GG revisited
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 5 January 2010, at 10:34 p.m.
    • 51S-62 at GG revisited
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 6 January 2010, at 5:46 a.m.
      • 51S-62 at GG revisited
        David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 6 January 2010, at 6:23 a.m.
        • 51S-62 at GG revisited
          Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 6 January 2010, at 7:02 a.m.
    • 51S-62 at GG revisited XG 4ply being extended
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 6 January 2010, at 12:49 p.m.
  • XG 4 ply RO with 10k for the top two plays
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 6 January 2010, at 11:05 p.m.
    • XG 4 ply RO with 10k for the top two plays
      Stick -- Wednesday, 6 January 2010, at 11:27 p.m.
      • XG 4 ply RO with 10k for the top two plays
        neilkaz -- Thursday, 7 January 2010, at 1:54 p.m.
  • We will hopefully get closer to the truth in a couple years
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 6 January 2010, at 11:15 p.m.

 

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/5	+0.1818
			0.4621 0.1288 0.0143 - 0.5379 0.2515 0.0555 +0.1818 +0.1818 0.0008 0.0006 0.0006 - 0.0008 0.0020 0.0013 0.0020 0.0020
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/11 8/2*	+0.1747 ( -0.0071)
			0.4614 0.1259 0.0147 - 0.5386 0.2623 0.0617 +0.1747 +0.1747 0.0008 0.0006 0.0007 - 0.0008 0.0021 0.0014 0.0022 0.0022
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	24/16	+0.1738 ( -0.0080)
			0.4803 0.1067 0.0141 - 0.5197 0.2205 0.0335 +0.1738 +0.1738 0.0006 0.0005 0.0007 - 0.0006 0.0019 0.0011 0.0016 0.0016
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	24/18 13/11	+0.1664 ( -0.0154)
			0.4743 0.1088 0.0141 - 0.5257 0.2291 0.0338 +0.1664 +0.1664 0.0012 0.0010 0.0012 - 0.0012 0.0034 0.0019 0.0032 0.0032
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857636419 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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