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XG RO's match and money

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 10 January 2010, at 3:37 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Fr 01/08/10 (Jason Lee)

The several who evaluated this as a pass at score would do well to go over their analysis and see where they underestimated our chances.




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
4 point match
pip: 148
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--DAC---cC-b-abcb---B-:0:0:-1:D:0:0:0:4:10
double to 2 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 65.87% (G: 21.23% B: 2.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.13% (G: 10.94% B: 1.26%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.46% (G: 21.71% B: 4.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.54% (G: 11.48% B: 1.94%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.477
Double:+1.223
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.771 (-0.137)
Double/Take:+0.909
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.091)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: 0.012 (+0.759...+0.783)
Confidence Double: 0.018 (+0.891...+0.926)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 56 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Probably not even a money cube !




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-b-B--DAC---cC-b-abcb---B-:0:0:-1:D:0:0:3:0:10
double to 2 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 66.10% (G: 21.49% B: 1.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.90% (G: 10.49% B: 0.71%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.43% (G: 21.55% B: 1.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.57% (G: 10.45% B: 0.74%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.322
Double:+0.899
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.665
Double/Take:+0.642 (-0.023)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.335)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: 0.015 (+0.651...+0.680)
Confidence Double: 0.019 (+0.624...+0.661)
Double Decision confidence: 97.2%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 32 minutes 47 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11

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