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Denmark vs the World GNU ERs

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 8 April 2010, at 6:52 p.m.

In Response To: Denmark vs the World GNU ERs (Christian Munk-Christensen)

I don't believe that adding up the ERs is a very reliable indicator of anything. For starters, mathematically speaking, adding up the error rates is meaningless; you should at least be looking at the sum of the errors. Furthermore it's not clear to me that one should add up EMGs instead of MWCs, if indeed either calculation makes any sense.

Supposing you could sort through that mess, there are other difficulties associated with factoring out other confounding issues. It could be, for instance, that one side got lucky in the sense of being faced with fewer difficult decisions. Even if we could quantify what a "difficult decision" is (a notoriously hard problem), how would we decide whether an excessive number of difficult decisions is caused by bad luck or by earlier poor play?

I could go on and list several other difficulties but this should be enough to illustrate the point.

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