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21$-21 Rollouts?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 9 April 2010, at 8:55 p.m.

In Response To: 21$-21 Rollouts? (Chase)


The Snowie and Gnu rollouts posted at BGO disagree about whether to split or slot with a 21 in response to Op's 21 slot. Before I start a long XG rollout on my rather slow computer I wanted to check if anyone has other rollouts of this to share.

That's a good second roll position to target. Fortunately, much of the work has already been done. Here is data for 21$-21:

Snowie .. [S $1] 36k
GnuBG .. [$ S5.6] 46k, d[$ S10.6] 15k, s[$ S1] 31k
XG 3-ply [$ S12] 15k
XG 4-ply [$ S5] 36k

The Snowie data is a combination of [S $9] 15k posted on this site and an independent [$ S5] 20k that I had done. Yes, it's a swing of .014; take note, all who have bought into the myth that variance is wrung out of rollouts of 15000 to 20000+ trials.

In case you are interested in other plays, the expanded information for my (i.e., non-Stick) Snowie rollout is [$ S5 U24 V40 D63 w65] 20k 10kU 5k, meaning U was only 10k trials (i.e., 10368) and V, D and w were only rolled 5k trials (i.e., 5184), and where U = Up (24/21), V = Variant-Up (24/23 24/22), D = Down (13/10), and w = wild (24/21 6/4).

The Gnu data is the 46k (i.e., 46656-trial) rollout posted at this site. Margins are given in thousandths; so [S $1] means Split beat Slot by .001, while [$ S5.6] means Slot beat Split by .0056. Gnu is the only bot given here to the fourth decimal place.

To the right of Gnu's money data is DMP data (identified by "d" before brackets) and GS data ("s" before brackets). The latter is a combination of Stick's 15552 and my 15552, adding to 31104 trials (31k).

The XG 3-ply rollout was performed by Stick. There's still variance in the 15k. If you want to do an independent rollout of some or all of 46k trials (or ask and I'll send you Stick's 15k file for extension), that would still be helpful. I'm trying to get 62k of all close positions on XG 3-ply, so if you wait long enough (21$-21 isn't even visible on our queue yet), in a few months Ken will have done it.

The XG 4-ply RO was posted by Neil here.

Finally, this is only tangentially related but might interest you: Bot-average "values" for 21$-21 and a few other second roll positions were discussed here and in the surrounding thread. (The purpose was to isolate bot-play errors replying to opening 21.)

Cheers,

Nack

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