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Rollout: Making the best of an awkward roll
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Making the best of an awkward roll (Timothy Chow)
Date: Sunday, 25 April 2010, at 4:22 a.m.
Over the board, I looked at 22/15, 22/18 4/1*, and 13/6. I eventually settled on the worst of these options, 13/6. A few months ago I identified one of my weaknesses as breaking anchor too readily. It seems that I have overcompensated and need to dial back a little. Breaking anchor is not so bad here because White is short of ammunition to attack and I have some decent defense—an equally strong board and two annoying (to White) outposts in the outfield. Also, being ahead in the race, I want to get those back checkers moving anyway. 13/6 leaves only one blot but even if I am not hit it doesn't help me with my goal of getting my four rear checkers around. 22/18 4/1* is a bit better but still leaves too many return shots.
gnubg 163
tchow 150 Position ID: 2M5gCCa4bWAMDA Match ID: cAkOABAAAAAA
# Ply Move Equity • 1 R 22/15 +0.308
0.576 0.198 0.014 - 0.424 0.149 0.008 +0.206 +0.308 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.012 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854158534 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 22/18 4/1* +0.130 ( -0.177)
0.539 0.183 0.009 - 0.461 0.172 0.011 +0.086 +0.130 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.014 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854158534 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 3 R 13/6 +0.088 ( -0.220)
0.515 0.181 0.011 - 0.485 0.151 0.008 +0.062 +0.088 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.011 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854158534 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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