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Score based late blitz cube from SFO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 24 May 2010, at 6:18 p.m.

I posted this earlier but it didn't attract much attention. Anyhow, OTB I was certain this was a huge money pass but uncertain whether it was a take or a drop AtS. That made my decision trivial, esp noting I was playing another W/C player. I cubed and my opp didn't take long to accept, which turns out to be a big error. He managed to anchor on my ace pt but crashed and lost a single game.

Note that XG can sometimes underestimate late blitzes like this and thinks the take is clear. BK for XG here.




is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
9 point match
pip: 98
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=bABBBBBA-----B--acbcbb--A-:0:0:1:D:4:0:0:9:10
double to 2 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 68.13% (G: 54.24% B: 2.86%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.87% (G: 4.58% B: 0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.06% (G: 55.35% B: 3.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.94% (G: 4.78% B: 0.28%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.860
Double:+1.704
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.940 (-0.060)
Double/Take:+1.158 (+0.158)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73451219
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.931...+0.949)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+1.144...+1.172)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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