It looks like Neil forgot to post a rollout here. I rolled out the original position as well as variants suggested by David Rockwell and by me (for money, though, not ATS). It appears that David's remark that you don't want 5 checkers on the 2 point works for these three positions, but I still don't understand why.
By the way, I hope that this is not, in fact, the easiest contact bearoff play ever, or I'll be supersizing myself at Burger King for the rest of my life.
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| • | 1 | R | 4/off 2/off | +1.365 |
| | | 0.841 | 0.652 | 0.106 | - | 0.159 | 0.000 | 0.000 | +1.440 | +1.365 | | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.002 | - | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.007 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892084178 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 2 | R | 4/2 4/off | +1.292 ( -0.073) |
| | | 0.825 | 0.630 | 0.093 | - | 0.175 | 0.000 | 0.000 | +1.373 | +1.292 | | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.001 | - | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.006 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892084178 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| • | 1 | R | 4/2 4/off | +1.409 |
| | | 0.856 | 0.665 | 0.101 | - | 0.144 | 0.000 | 0.000 | +1.479 | +1.409 | | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.002 | - | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.006 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891744325 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 2 | R | 4/off 2/off | +1.206 ( -0.203) |
| | | 0.800 | 0.601 | 0.107 | - | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | +1.307 | +1.206 | | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.002 | - | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.006 | 0.008 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891744325 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| • | 1 | R | 4/off 2/off | +1.390 |
| | | 0.840 | 0.664 | 0.124 | - | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | +1.468 | +1.390 | | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.004 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892307053 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 2 | R | 4/2 4/off | +1.375 ( -0.014) |
| | | 0.843 | 0.666 | 0.098 | - | 0.157 | 0.000 | 0.000 | +1.449 | +1.375 | | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892307053 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
