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Anybody here using EPC ?

Posted By: Fabrice Liardet
Date: Tuesday, 15 June 2010, at 11:49 a.m.

I know that there are more compact racing formulas, but EPC seems to be from far the broadest and most logical approach, therefore it is the one I would like to learn if it is within my possibilities. I have read some good GammonVillage articles about it by Walter Trice and Douglas Zare, but they don't come close to covering all cases. Are there complements or other approaches that I don't know ?

In the state of my knowledge I would set up the following program, but maybe it can be done differently.

1) Computing the EPCs in positions that are not close to n-roll positions (the latter have been well analyzed by Walter Trice, based on the 7n+1 formula).

2) Converting the respective EPCs to a raw measure of game winning chances and cube action, using something similar to Kleinman's count.

3) Using the respective wastages to adjust for volatility (higher wastage -> lower volatility -> lower chances for the underdog and smaller doubling window).

So, EPC anyone ? Any opinion on feasibility and additional input is welcome.

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