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Snake: prime 6 to 11 point..XG 4 ply a bit worse !

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 17 June 2010, at 11:44 p.m.

In Response To: Snake: prime 6 to 11 point..XG 4 ply a bit worse ! (Bob Koca)

That by itself would not imply it is not too good.

True. When I wrote that the bot thinks it's too good (before the 4-4), I was thinking that I did not think it was too good.

And if you have cube access 5/1 8/4 10/6/2 keeps the prime. Is the position overrun enough that the cash has been lost?

Good question. I think so. That play does keep the prime, but makes it awfully hard to keep moving forward because all three spares are already in front of the prime. I would not have made that play with any cube position. Here's a rollout of the cube decision after 5/1 8/4 10/6/2 ... no move. According to the bot, Blue has regained his market with that sequence. I'm not certain that having the spares advanced like that doesn't induce Gnubg to make more errors after that play than after some other play. But I think the rollout's D/T is correct.

White36


eX ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '

1O1O1X1O '2O2O2O2O2O2O '

Blue109

Position ID: /z8AAAgl27YBAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.4747
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.8589
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.1411
3.No double +0.8491 -0.0098
Proper cube action:Redouble, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player Blue owns 2-cube0.74620.04040.0001-0.25380.05820.0000 +0.4747 +0.8491
Standard error0.00410.00450.0003-0.00410.00570.0000 0.0104 0.0244
Player White owns 4-cube0.74880.03320.0003-0.25120.05800.0000 +0.9463 +0.8589
Standard error0.00450.00430.0003-0.00450.00560.0000 0.0213 0.0285
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
83 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892624998 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Going back to the 4-4 play:

White36


eX ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '

' '1X '1O2O2O3O2O3O2O '

Blue125

Position ID: /z8AAAjQdrsBAA Match ID: UQkSAAAAAAAA

When the snake comes down to making the 5, 4 and 3 points, it's crunch time. If Blue puts spares out of play, he has little flexilibity to recover. I find that with awkward numbers (basically, 5-5 and 4-4), Blue needs to go ahead and make points and keep his spares flexible, even though that gives White some immediate jokers.

The bot on 2-ply plays 11/3* 7/3 9/5. My play while playing it out with White holding the cube was 7/3* 10/6 9/5. Here's a brief rollout of five plays with Blue holding a 2-cube:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 4: Blue to play 44

White36


eX ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '

' '1X '1O2O2O3O2O3O2O '

Blue125

Position ID: /z8AAAjQdrsBAA Match ID: UQkSAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 11/3* 9/5 7/3

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.9109
0.9139 0.0965 0.0006 - 0.0861 0.0140 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +1.0178
2.Double, take +1.7632 +0.7455
3.Double, pass +1.0000 -0.0178
Proper cube action:Too good to redouble, pass (2.3%)

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 11/3* 9/5 7/3 +0.9655
0.85250.06410.0001-0.14750.03010.0000 +0.7390 +0.9655
0.00090.00100.0000-0.00090.00140.0000 0.0029 0.0019
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
92 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892624998 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 10/6 9/5 7/3*(2) +0.9628 ( -0.0027)
0.81740.05410.0001-0.18260.02550.0000 +0.6635 +0.9628
0.00160.00070.0001-0.00160.00140.0000 0.0024 0.0083
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
92 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892624998 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 9/5 8/4 7/3*(2) +0.9350 ( -0.0305)
0.80810.06210.0001-0.19190.05900.0000 +0.6194 +0.9350
0.00150.00190.0000-0.00150.00160.0000 0.0038 0.0020
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
92 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892624998 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4 R 11/3* 9/5(2) +0.9231 ( -0.0424)
0.80410.06130.0005-0.19590.04900.0000 +0.6208 +0.9231
0.00210.00280.0013-0.00210.00230.0000 0.0053 0.0125
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
92 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892624998 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5 R 10/2 8/4 5/1 +0.9055 ( -0.0600)
0.75550.03900.0000-0.24450.05890.0001 +0.4911 +0.9055
0.00410.00440.0004-0.00410.00610.0000 0.0119 0.0315
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
91 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892624998 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

I assume the SDs are low on the top 3 plays because Gnubg is more often cashing next roll after them.

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