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What am I missing here?

Posted By: christian munk-christensen
Date: Wednesday, 1 December 2010, at 9:14 p.m.

Money Game
Blue to play 63
White76

Blue66
GNUBg Id: t21DABDntjkAAA:UYkZAAAAAAAA
XGID=-CaCBBB-C------a---bbbbbc-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

This was posted on the Danish forum. Blue has missed a cube and has now rolled an interesting 63. For me it seems clear to make the 2 point to minimize gammon losses. Blue ought to win 25/36 after this play since it should be possible to cash after a dance and a hit will "usually" mean a loss.

I rolled the deuce point out. (I forgot how to post rollouts here)

It only wins 62,61% of the games. XG is cashing after a dance. So why does the rollout report fewer than 25/36 wins for blue?

Playing 2 from the 8 point will win a little more since a hit from the bar is not necessarily the end of the world because white will still be behind a 4-prime.

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