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White to play 6-4, 7-point match, 4-away/4-away

Posted By: Jim Stutz
Date: Saturday, 4 December 2010, at 4:21 a.m.

	is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 100 7 point match pip: 105 score: 3 is Player 1
XGID=--B-CaCC---AbC----acbcab--:0:0:1:64:3:3:0:7:10
to play 64

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Hint: Here are the four top plays, in no particular order, and their corresponding equities (per XG Roller+):

a) 11/1: (win 52.24%, win gammon 1.01%, win bg .02% ---- lose 47.76%, lose gammon, 1.58%, lose bg .02%)

b) 10/5*, 5/1: (win 54.07, win gammon 5.51, bg.17 ---- lose 45.93, lose gammon 12.07, bg .12)

c) 13/7, 11/7: (win 52.60, win gammon .82, bg .01 ---- lose 47.40, lose gammon .67, bg .01

d) 13/9, 11/5*: (win 51.5, win gammon 8.44, bg .27 ---- lose 48.5, lose gammon 22.18, bg .52)

What is the right play (by a lot, as it turns out -- 2nd, 3rd and 4th are all blunders or near-blunders), and what manner of math does one use to derive the right answer (and its resulting equity relative to the three inferior plays) from a, b, c and d above?

Messages In This Thread

• White to play 6-4, 7-point match, 4-away/4-away
  Jim Stutz -- Saturday, 4 December 2010, at 4:21 a.m.
  • White to play 6-4, 7-point match, 4-away/4-away
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 4 December 2010, at 6:07 p.m.
    • White to play 6-4, 4-away/4-away
      Jim Stutz -- Saturday, 4 December 2010, at 7:32 p.m.