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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 4 October 2006, at 11:04 p.m.

In Response To: New Ideas in BG #28 (Stick)

Sometimes I find it so hard to pass up making the 5pt. and this was one of those times. What tips the scales in such favor of the top play is the made acepoint blue has. That coupled with the 15 pip race lead points to blue making a run for it and trying to fight it out in the outfield where if the battle begins his made ace will be an asset and not a liability.
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 173
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 170
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Bb---C-C-b-cCa--c-caC--A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 33

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/21 21/18(3) -0.049
0.3% 13.5% 48.5% 51.5% 13.9% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.035 ±0.015. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 999 games (equiv. 29834 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 21/18(2) 8/5(2) -0.117 (-0.068)
0.6% 15.5% 46.1% 53.9% 15.6% 0.6%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.080 ±0.017. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 999 games (equiv. 23085 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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