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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 5 October 2006, at 11:29 a.m.

In Response To: 21S-54S-42 (Stick)

I honestly didn't consider 11/5* 'fighting for the five' worth rolling out. There are so many decent things to do with this roll and all this accomplishes is "maybe" making the five point *if* your opponent doesn't hit with his 21 hitting rolls (and I'm not sure, does he hit loose with some sixes on the deuce to keep you off balanace?)

24/20 13/11 locks up the 11 pt. which could be of value. If your opponent anchors up immediately then it is of blocking value, if not, it's putting pressure on the five point. A couple drawbacks I see is that even though white has no board 24/20 comes right in the range of those stacks that need developed. White is a bit candlesticky and you moving up will allow him to burn down while fighting for good inner board points. As already mentioned too it diversifies your opponent's good numbers, 4s to anchor up, 3s & 1s to hit. I also prefer the compactness/start of a prime by making the 9 pt. over the 'stringy' 11 pt.

13/9 11/9 was my personal choice before I saw the rollout. I've decided on a KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) to some backgammon problems. It starts to form a nice, compact prime that can be easily added to by making the bar, 4, or 5 pt. It leaves no blots. It keeps the pressure on your opponent to anchor up. The drawbacks are that it doesn't do what making the four does, unstacking, inner board pt, etc. It also leaves you a lot less inflexible compared to making the 4 pt.

8/4 6/4, while only a slight rollout victor, should be the play of choice. It makes an inner board point pressuring white to anchor up immediately (or hit) or suffer the consequences. This is the key feature, aside from unstacking the six pt., the made four point means that if white doesn't reply with something note worthy, your game will be quite strong. Plenty of builders aimed at the five and if you make it a very strong board/prime follow while your opponent is relatively undeveloped.

Money Game
158
164
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 8/4 6/4 -0.028
0.5% 13.5% 49.3% 50.7% 13.7% 0.7%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.018 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 168701 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 13/9 11/9 -0.041 (-0.013)
0.5% 12.2% 49.1% 50.9% 13.2% 0.6%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.029 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 175000 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 24/20 13/11 -0.074 (-0.046)
0.5% 11.3% 48.6% 51.4% 13.7% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.053 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 171125 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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