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Corrected Stats

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 29 January 2011, at 5:34 p.m.

In Response To: Nactation: Study, Tutorial Supplement, and Annactated Game (storm)

Thanks for the correction. I had Storm and Stein (who answered in adjacent posts) next to each other in my grid and for that roll I confused your answers. You guessed 13/12 7/6 4/3*(2), which I attributed to Stein (and mentioned in the notes), while I failed to properly enter his guess of 13/12 8/7 8/6 (no hit).

Adjusting for that, the game score and stats are lowered by 0.4 or 0.3%:

    220/243 = 90.5% (unforced checker plays only)
    238/261 = 91.2% (includes fans)
    274/297 = 92.3% (includes fans and cube decisions)

Out of 27 non-fanning rolls, 22.2% were doublets (with a 68.5% success rate vs the 97% non-doublets rate) instead of the expected 16.7%. If you feel it is fair to adjust for the so-many-doublets factor, tack on 1.6% to the percentages listed above this paragraph.

Breakdown: In the move sequence below (with the Nactations used in the study), the numbers of erroneous responses (out of a total of 9 each play) are listed above the corresponding plays in red. (The absence of a number means zero.)

----------------------------------------------------------------
..........6...........2...................1...............1
21S-41S-22m-41P-33P-43H-31@-21L-52T-21@-53A-53R-63R-42P-53N-31$-
----------------------------------------------------------------
......6 ..1 ......1 ..2 ......2 ..1
52D-11N-11P-54D-32C-55I-C-T-11F-64H-64^-422-41C-63H-43^-R-P
----------------------------------------------------------------

Non-doublets: Only six were missed (i.e., less than 3%): one oversight (not seeing the hit on the 10pt), one not knowing the A-word, one thinking only U could move a back checker, two failing to Hit on highest point, and one being too creative with the 6pt convention.

Doublets: Out of 54 respondent answers, 17 were wrong. However, of these, two were a consequence of my thoughtless 55I Nactation and five hinged on a couple of rules that were previously undisclosed [the 6pt convention wrinkle (see 11N), and P’s dedication clause (see 11N and 11P)]. For those seven wrong answers, I cannot fault the respondents one iota.

That leaves just ten "chargeable" doublet errors. Five were from not knowing M and/or not knowing what to do with lower case (see 22m), three were from misunderstanding or misremembering N (see 11N), and two were from an extreme treatment of spares (see 11F).

Nack

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