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MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 11:26 a.m.

In Response To: MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision (Chris Bray)

I am not sure, maybe Paul will explain his thinking although I could also very well understand if he does not, but I think Paul's thought process went as follows:

- Fabio had been doubling late throughout the match - I believe that was the most significant source of Paul's edge (not sure, maybe XG analysis can confirm).

- This means that from -3 -2, Paul would get significantly more equity than he usually would get, an argument for dropping.

- This comes on the top of checker play advantages Paul has, which also argue for dropping the cube. Accepting means that the match will last 2 more games at most, dropping means an additional game.

I don't know how to judge this, and whether dropping is practically correct. You also need to figure in the complexity of this game vis-a-vis the next games.

In any case, this is a difficult position and decision. I believe Paul played the match very well and disciplined and that there is no reason for any regrets.

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