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MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision - Fish MET - Rollout

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Friday, 22 July 2011, at 7:31 a.m.

In Response To: MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision - Fish MET (mtuhtan)

Fish MET with 100 Elo difference and 2-ply v 0-ply suggests you need a bigger Elo difference to make the drop correct.

The score (after 0 games) is: Paul 21, Fabio 19 (match to 23 points)

Move number 2: Fabio on roll, cube decision?

Paul	159
Fabio	166
Position ID: mM/gEFDaDHgEMg Match ID: cAngAlABmAAE

• Fabio doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.247	(Money: +0.027)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.955
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.045
3.	No double	+0.658	-0.297
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.520 0.222 0.024 - 0.480 0.215 0.043 +0.247 +0.658 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.007 Player Paul owns 2-cube 0.516 0.202 0.043 - 0.484 0.248 0.062 +0.955 +0.955 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.002 - 0.001 0.003 0.002 0.010 0.010
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 926743812 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Player 1:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Messages In This Thread

• MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
  Chris Bray -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 11:01 a.m.
  • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 11:26 a.m.
    • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
      Carlo Melzi -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 12:04 p.m.
      • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
        Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 12:18 p.m.
      • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
        Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 1:31 p.m.
  • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
    adambulldog -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 11:32 a.m.
    • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
      David Startin -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 12:08 p.m.
      • Rollout
        David Startin -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 4:11 p.m.
        • Rollout With Board
          David Startin -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 4:31 p.m.
          • Rollout With Board
            adambulldog -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 9:01 a.m.
            • Rollout With Board
              neilkaz -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 3:04 p.m.
              • Rollout With Board
                adambulldog -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 10:30 p.m.
                • Rollout With Board
                  neilkaz -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 10:58 p.m.
                  • Rollout With Board
                    adambulldog -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 11:31 p.m.
                    • Rollout With Board
                      neilkaz -- Saturday, 23 July 2011, at 3:06 a.m.
  • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
    Turz -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 11:35 a.m.
    • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
      John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 1:17 p.m.
  • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
    Christian Plenz -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 12:52 p.m.
  • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
    Stick -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 3:46 p.m.
    • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
      misja -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 8:01 a.m.
  • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision - Fish MET
    mtuhtan -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 3:55 p.m.
    • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision - Fish MET
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 4:27 p.m.
    • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision - Fish MET - Rollout
      Neil Robins -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 7:31 a.m.
      • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision - Fish MET - Rollout
        Bob Koca -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 6:14 p.m.
        • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision - Fish MET - Rollout
          Stick -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 6:36 p.m.
  • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
    rory -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 12:00 a.m.
    • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
      Michael Petch -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 12:33 a.m.
      • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
        Michael Petch -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 12:41 a.m.
        • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
          rory -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 4:39 a.m.
        • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
          adambulldog -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 10:38 p.m.
    • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
      adambulldog -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 9:07 a.m.
      • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
        Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 11:15 a.m.
    • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
      Joe Russell -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 10:49 a.m.
    • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
      neilkaz -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 3:09 p.m.
      • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
        rory -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 9:30 p.m.
        • wasn't there somerthing with 20/1 odds on the T/P ;) *NM*
          Christian Plenz -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 10:56 p.m.
          • I do not recall anything about 20/21 odds on T/P *NM*
            rory -- Saturday, 23 July 2011, at 6:33 p.m.
  • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
    mikeg -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 4:54 a.m.
    • MC Semi-Final Key Doubling Decision
      Stick -- Friday, 22 July 2011, at 4:58 a.m.