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BGonline.org Forums
my solution
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: NOW I understand why you guys are struggling (Chuck Bower)
Date: Monday, 25 July 2011, at 3:40 p.m.
I suspect either I didn't define the problem well (even after the posted adenda) or I'm just wrong. But here is what I came up with:
For each xi, calculate the mean success rate, p_bar(xi), and the sample standard deviation, s(xi) for which I used the binomial formula for calculating reduced s.d.: sqrt(p*(1-p)/N). Then minimize the function
[p_bar(xi)]/s(xi)]^2 - [A*Q(xi)]^2
where A is the variable of minimization. (I.e. find the value of A where this relationship is a minimum.) Note the smaller the standard deviation, the more weight that datapoint gets.
I got this idea from Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences by Philip R. Bevington.
BTW, the idea of taking more data to beat down the s.d. isn't always an option.
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