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Meta-MET Needed for Best 2 of 3 Matches

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Friday, 29 July 2011, at 11:45 a.m.

In Response To: Meta-MET Needed for Best 2 of 3 Matches (Timothy Chow)

Here is a hypothetical situation:

Player I and player WC play a best of three seven point match set. Player I is 300 ELO weaker than player WC and knows it, as Player WC's strength is well known. Player I has never played player WC before and knows nothing of his game. The first game of the match both players open with a pair of 6-5's and it becomes a race and Player B has skilled/lucked his way into proper cube action and now has a decision to make-should he double to eight and put the first match of the set on the line? The correct answer, including ELO adjustments, turns out to be no, with player I winning the first match .38 if he doubles and .385 if he does not. In practice it could be right for player I to double, since player WC has gained very little information about his weaknesses in this first game and if more games are needed to finish the match, that information may be gained and player WC may gain more from this information than the .5% player I lost by doubling.

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