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Optimal Strategy against a better opponent

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 30 July 2011, at 12:07 a.m.

In Response To: Optimal Strategy against a better opponent (Max Levenstein)

A contrarian by nature, having read most of the responses here I have a different opinion.

First off, you ask about the weaker player's strategy and several have talked about the stronger player's strategy. Of course neither can be taken in isolation, so it is true that the weaker player can take advantage of the stronger player's timidity.

Historically (back to the pre-bot 70's) this was discussed quite a bit, particularly in Barclay Cooke's writings. If forced to put those concepts into one sentence: "double in positions with high gammon chances/volatility". If the weaker player is going to win s/he wants to do so in short order. "Grinding it out" (in 1- and 2-point increments) favors the more skillful player.

As far as Jacobs&Trice's "Fish book", it has long been argued that this mostly applies to races where the weaker player is less likely to screw up.

So, from the (considerably) weaker player's PoV, double (early) when the gammon chances are high, and double (early enough) in races where you can't screw up.

There are a couple paradoxes with this simple concept, though:

1) a weak player isn't very likely to be able to judge gammon chances or race winning chances;

2) psychologically it is poor strategy to let your psyche be infiltrated with thoughts of inferiority.

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