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BGonline.org Forums
OLM We 08/03/11
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM We 08/03/11 (Jason Lee)
Date: Thursday, 4 August 2011, at 3:35 p.m.
One of the fun things about backgammon is trying to figure out what the right play is rather than just guessing or going-with-the-gut. Is this such a situation?
Start by looking at the race. Pipcountwise opp is between 70% and 71% (from Kleinamn Count). He's just about 1 pip short of a double (if I remember my own article in USBGF newsletter). SO, if there is no adjustment against our side for checker locations then we won't get doubled next turn. Even if there is a 1 pip penalty, opp is still close to the double/no-double line and we have our choice of calling that a double or a no-double. I'm calling it a no-double, so...
1. We won't get doubled next turn.
If we stay we gain just under 1% of the time (opp rolls 6-6 and we hit). If we stay we lose ground only when we roll an ace next turn. BUT, if we roll an ace then our average pip value for the roll will be 4 1/2 pips, about 3 1/2 pips less than average.
The turn after this we'll get doubled out if we lose 3 net pips. (Again, maybe we'll be just on the borderline if we lose exactly 3 pips in which case we call it a 'pass'.) Thus on average we're no better off having run off the 18-point since we are going to lose by a cubeturn.
2. If we roll an ace next turn we are likely getting doubled out.
The conclusion is that we might as well hang around and hope for the 66 + ace sequence.
The problem with this kind of calculation is that it almost always requires one to make some assumptions, and if those assumptions are off, things can go wrong. Here, for example, using averages isn't quite right. Sometimes opp rolls below average, too. But, hey, isn't it still better than flipping a coin? (Guess we'll find out.) And either way, look at all the fun you miss out on if you take the easy way out. :)
6(2)
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