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Here's one for your race formulas

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Wednesday, 17 August 2011, at 11:58 a.m.

In Response To: Here's one for your race formulas (Bob Koca)

2 checkers on the 2 point. Should that be "... 2 pt 200..." which would give you the total of 663 intsead of 563?

True! An oversight on my part.

If 2 pt is 100 per checker and 1 pt is 200 per checker then sliding a checker from the 2 pt to the ace point gives back in the adjustment the actual pip that it gains. But I am pretty sure that 2 1 * ... would usually be better than 1 2 * ... .

I did not consider that, thanx.

So 40.6 is the what you call the actual pipcount? That is a terrible term for it. Words have meanings and it gets confusing when a word gets used in a definition in a way that is contrary to its regular meaning. Most will think that "actual pipcount" would mean the value of 34 and not 40.6

I'm open to suggestion...!

The honour however, is Kit Woolsey's Ultimate Pip Count. Seret's article came aferwards and while it does share similar ideas I had the UPC in my mind all the way.

EPC vs. Method X





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 0
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 79
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----CEG-------------------:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

EPC wastage 7.07 - Method X 7.33

In long races (with outfield checkers), the Metric on average appears to be 0.3< the XG2 Eval. In efficient race bear-off's (zero checkers off), the Metric is 0.3> the XG2 eval.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 0
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 70
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABCDE-------------------:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

Magic Triangle EPC 7.5? - Method X 7.6. UPC 945 pipples, 9.45 rolls x 8.1667, 7.7.

Real Position





White is Player 1

score: 1
pip: 26
9 point match
pip: 16
score: 1

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--A-C-B-------------a-abd-:1:-1:-1:00:1:1:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 76.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 76.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 23.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 23.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.530 +1.118
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.744 (-0.256)±0.000 (+0.744..+0.744)
Redouble/Take:+1.000±0.000 (+1.000..+1.000)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.000)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
331776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6641806
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:69.5%
Duration: 8.0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

Method X, Blue 1200/100, 12+16 = 28 pips. White 466/100, 4.6+26 = 30.6 pips. Blue's edge is between 2-3 pips and the Metric converts this to 76.5%.

Verification:

Boot Camp: p140, position 3-15 show EPC's of 57. Black's DEW is 1833+150 (gaps 6,5,4)+800 (4 extra checkers), 27.8+30 = 57.8. White's DEW is 560/100, 5.6+50 = 55.6. Blue is on roll and will take 2 checkers, so is real count is 53.8. Blue's edge is 53.8-55.6, 1.8 pips. The Metric converts this to 62.78%; XG2 41472 rollout, 62.85%.

Surface observation: 57.8+55.6/2 = 56.7! There's that 0.3 again; be it less than rather than more than first realised.

Fascinating!

NBM

Suggestions for a name for this method would be most welcome.

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