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I know what I'd do at 4a2a, but...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 17 August 2011, at 2:20 p.m.

In Response To: I know what I'd do at 4a2a, but... (Timothy Chow)

At 4a2a I would have judged this to be D/P, but here I thought it was a clear take.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 141
7 point match
pip: 153
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--BBB-B--AbD---bbdabB---:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 66.98% (G: 20.91% B: 1.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.02% (G: 10.38% B: 0.72%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.18% (G: 21.94% B: 1.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.82% (G: 11.27% B: 1.13%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.333
Double:+1.028
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.816 (-0.184)
Double/Take:+1.028 (+0.028)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.804...+0.827)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+1.011...+1.046)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 99.9%
Duration: 7 hours 30 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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