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Daily Quiz 8/17

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 19 August 2011, at 5:10 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 8/17 (Daily Quiz)

What, no cube problems? :) Did you find that potential child prodigy you were wanting to train? Hope not because s/he might smoke me on these.

Problem 1 Looks like a Pottle's Rule question on top of a "when behind in the race..." situation. Is White really going to leave a direct shot (or even multiple indirects) before Blue starts to crunch? Kleinman Count gives Blue ~38% chance in the race, but it's not a race (and White's misses are larger than average rolls so even on White's 16/36 misses -- Blue's best hope when running out -- he's not in good shape). But it still comes back to how good is Blue if he stays back? Presumably he'll spring with a six, but that might not happen until he's been closed out.... Besides if I run and it's wrong I can blame Sam. 24/18

Problem 2 Blue isn't really ahead in the race, and 2/1 gives opp more options than he deserves for little gain other than avoiding getting hit. 13/8, 6/5

Problem 3 Will I screw up this great roll? Well no matter what, I can't get gammoned. That argues for hitting off the anchor. 25/23, 18/13*

Problem 4 The race is way in my favor and FRAM rule #3 (if missed, am I home free?) seems pretty strong for just two extra shots. 11/5, 11/10

Problem 5 Reminds me of the current GammonU OLM except that is GS. (And, FWIW, my vote there is getting shelled....) Keeping opp on the bar may give you the time to bring your back checkers to (near) safety. My gut tells me White has the timing to play either the 24- or 23-point game for 20+% MWC (Although he does have to anchor). And unlike the GU OLM, here the alternatives don't look constructive [13/11(2), 13/9 I guess.] 4/2*(2), 3/1*(2).