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Chow's Checkerplay Challenge #2, part a

Posted By: Sharikov
Date: Monday, 29 August 2011, at 6:24 p.m.

In Response To: Chow's Checkerplay Challenge #2, part a (Timothy Chow)

1. We are significantly behind in the race and might be forced to play a back game. Our first priority in this position is to secure the 3-anchor, so 24/22. With 3 we might start building our home board, so 8/5. Getting hit on the bar point or on the 8 is of no concern as we will switch to the back game if that happens.

So, 24/22 8/5.

2. We are well ahead in the race and just want to get home safely. The safest move at this point is 13/4, however we would face significant difficulties later moving two checkers on the 14 point home as they have no landing points. Moving 13/9 leaves only 11 shots and, if not hit, provides a good landing point for the two remaining checkers. Getting hit on 9 is not too dangerous for us since white has only two points in its home board. We will easily enter and try to escape.

So, 13/9 7/2.

3. The choice is between closing the inner board and hoping for a shot later and taking a chance by hitting a blot and hoping white fans.

Suppose we close the board now. Since we still have a slim chance to win the race with a couple of good doubles, let's simply assume that we lose the game if we don't hit and we win the game if we hit. White has 3 "bad" rolls: 33, 44, 62. Even then we are only 1/3 to win. Of the remaining 32 rolls white will only leave an indirect shot at 13. So we are probably less than 20% favorite to win.

Suppose we hit the blot. In 1/2 cases white fans we are a big favorite to cover at least one blot and also have a decent chance of picking up the second blot. That probably takes us to around 30-40% chance to win.

So, 20/12*.

P.S. While thinking about #4 it just occurred to me that if white fans, we will redouble and he will be forced to drop. So, it looks like we have about 50% chance of winning if we hit.

4. We can play safe for a turn with 8/6 2/1 and making our position extremely inflexible or risk 6/3*. If white hits our blot in the latter case, we are probably losing a gammon. I think the gammon threat makes the safe play slightly more preferable.

So, 8/6 2/1.

5. Tough choice. We have better home board than white, two checkers back, and an anchor in case we are hit. Looks like bold play 8/3 is best here. Since we need 4's as escaping numbers, the 3 should be played 7/4.

So, 8/3 7/4.

DISCLAIMER: I'm a beginner just starting to learn the game, so probably most of my reasoning is way off base.

Messages In This Thread

• Chow's Checkerplay Challenge #2, part a
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 28 August 2011, at 11:53 p.m.
  • Chow's Checkerplay Challenge #2, part a
    Sharikov -- Monday, 29 August 2011, at 6:24 p.m.
    • Chow's Checkerplay Challenge #2, part a
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 29 August 2011, at 9:26 p.m.
      • Chow's Checkerplay Challenge #2, part a
        Sharikov -- Monday, 29 August 2011, at 10:53 p.m.
  • Chow's Checkerplay Challenge #2, part a
    Turz -- Wednesday, 31 August 2011, at 3:30 p.m.
  • Rollouts and analysis: Chow's Checkerplay Challenge #2, part a
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 5 September 2011, at 3:33 a.m.