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OLM Su 8/28/11

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 29 August 2011, at 11:34 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Su 8/28/11 (Jason Lee)

By my mental arithmetic we need to win 30% of cubeless games to take this. I assumed 3/7 cubeless losses are gammons and 1/5 cubeless wins are gammons. Ignoring BG's that's leads to an equity takepoint of 1.2*0.3 - 1.42*0.7 = -0.64 which is somewhat worse than a $-take (ballpark -0.6 with this many G-losses).

Is this a $-take? Postion-wise opp has made two new offensive points and one improved defensive point to our one new offensive point. We trail the race by 11 pips (although one back vs. two improves our race a bit compared to the pipcount) and opp threatens to send us back into a 3 1/2 to 4 point homeboard. That's a pretty strong PRaT indicator that this is at best a bare take at $.

On the upcoming shake he gets 20/36 rolls hit+covers, 8/36 hit-without-covering rolls and 8/36 misses. Say we win 40% when missed, 30% when hit+no-cover, and 20% after hit+cover. You don't have to multiply this out to see that on average we're winning less than 30% (all of this on the cubeless basis). But if you do multiply it out it looks like 9.6/36 wins when we need 11/36.

This is the best I can do. My calculation says 'pass' and my gut certainly isn't arguing too vehemently against that.

Pass

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