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Estimate Winning Chances #2

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 30 August 2011, at 5:23 p.m.

In Response To: Estimate Winning Chances #2 (Stick)

8/7*/4* -> return it or not -- 12 numbers hit -- and a wag at 4/5*2/3 + 1/3*1/3 = 64%

14/13 8/5 puts White on roll behind 2 pips which would make Blue a slight underdog in a noncontact race. Contact favors Blue but isn't going to make up 17%-18% GWC.

14/11 8/7* gives 11 returns its and I'd think that since after 8/7*/4* some of the return hits still leave a checker on the bar, these 11 should be worse for Blue than the other 12.

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