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'variance reduction' versus 'MWC error totals'

Posted By: Johan Segers
Date: Friday, 9 September 2011, at 10:08 a.m.

In Response To: 'variance reduction' versus 'MWC error totals' (Maik Stiebler)

Thank you, this is quite helpful. From your reply, I understand the following:

  1. In theory, the difference between MWC error totals should be equal to the luck adjusted result.
  2. In practice, discrepancies arise because of the way these quantities are calculated -- Doublas Zare's "Bot confusion".

The computation method you mention in your other post should resolve the second issue. I am looking forward to any progress being made in this area.

At the current state of the art, I'm faced with a problem if I am going to apply this in a live tournament with real money at stake: current software produces two different estimates of the same quantity, the amount of MWC gained or lost due to errors. Which of the two estimates is then the more reliable one: the difference in MWC error totals or the luck adjusted result?

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