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BGonline.org Forums
OLM Su 09/11/11
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM Su 09/11/11 (Jason Lee)
Date: Monday, 12 September 2011, at 6:04 p.m.
We lead the pipcount, but opp has established a defense which won't make it easy to convert this into a race+bearoff. In particular, White's back checker is a thorn in our side.
Unfortunately we are forced to leave a blot this turn. We can attack that back thorn, but does that help us or opp? We might push it forward and 4/36 it will stay on the bar, but the latter case still leaves us needing to cover our blot. And 11/36 (assuming after hitting we advance to the acepoint) is a significant gain for opp. In any case, we're still left needing to get off the 15-point in the future (unless we can cash the game before that). Five of the hits are covers leaving six that aren't.
15/8 leaves six hit+covers and eight more hits without covering. (I'm not counting 6-2 as a hit.) With the 22 rolls that don't hit for opp we still need to get the back checker to safety.
(Are you getting the feeling I'm not sure about this one?) My gut instinct was to run off the back point. If we had an attractive option I would exercise it, but I don't see the loose hit as doing enough for us. If we get hit, we'd rather that be in the outfield (I think) and if we're missed we'd rather have gotten off the 17-point. There are a few more shots (and one more hit+cover) in the outfield than in our HB, so it's not as simple as this last sentence.
15/8
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