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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 9/12 + Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes
Posted By: Pilgrim In Response To: Daily Quiz 9/12 + Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes (Daily Quiz)
Date: Tuesday, 13 September 2011, at 12:14 p.m.
Hello,
Great idea on the cutting down to three problems a day - it makes things far more manageable. Sadly, it seems I can still answer only 1 problem in a lunch hour... but it is a good problem for the DQR
#1
11/8, 11/7 - a classic pay now, pay later problem. At first it looks like a pay now problem - we are ahead in the race, if we are missed on the 8 spot there will be few problems bringing the game home, blue is getting weaker and white is getting stronger.
The thing for pay later is that we may not need to pay at all - white will have to clear the 16 point if he rolls a 6 next roll (anything else he will try to hang on because he has few racing chances). If this was money play, I would probably pay now and be done with it.
But this is match play and white owns a four cube in a match to seven and the real question is what effect this has? And sadly I have no idea about the answer and what follows may be rubbish.
It seems to me that by blue paying now, white has to double to 8 - blue is either going to win the game (and have a 84% chance of winning the match from 2a7a according to the MET) or blue is going to lose the game. Either way, white is going to want a 30% chance of winning the match with the next go.
If blue pays later, will he win 70% of the matches from this position? On balance, I guess no blue will probably not win more games. White can afford to wait a while and if he hit on a pick an pass, it may even generate more shots in the longer term. White can also kill gammons by cubing. This to me indicates a pay now play - blue will not win anything more in the longer term by paying later.
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