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Daily Quiz 9/22

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 23 September 2011, at 5:14 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 9/22 (Daily Quiz)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uj4Ub5v6mg0

Position 1. One of the first things I (think I) learned about BG was that pure 4-roll vs. 4-roll is (Re)Double-Take while pure 5-roll vs. 5-roll is a double but not a redouble. This position isn't 'pure' in that sense. Blue currently has six working doublets while White has only four, and in the continuation Blue is likely to keep the lead (although probably not this large of a lead) in that category, when it matters. I'm less sure on the take than the redouble. R+T

Position 2. I seem to recall that Kleinman said that having one extra off with even remaining is worth 3 pips while having one extra off with odd remaining is 1 pip. (Thus two extra off is 1 + 3 = 4, and averages 2.) In that case Ward+KC gives Blue better than 80% cubeless Game Winning Chances although that doesn't account for Blue's potential 5-gap. (But even sure gaps aren't usually as much as 3% penalties.) Another thought (though not nearly as quantitative) is that other than a large disparity in dice, Blue loses ground when he gaps the 5-point and then rolls a 5. In that case he typically has the same number of checkers off as opp but is on roll. Symmetric bearoffs with low wastage (and several checkers remaining) are in the 2::1 range in roller's favor. So when things go (moderately) bad Blue is still a decent (cubeless) favorite. How likely is the gap+miss scenario to occur, anyway? R+P

Position 3. Oh, this one isn't a race. :( PRaT gives Blue 2 1/2 out of 3. Suppose White's checker on the bar were instead on Blue's 3-point. What would that feel like? Blue would be a nice favorite (I think) and maybe have a double. What about gammons? Those appear to favor Blue by quite a bit. Blue's back checker being blocked is an issue, but not an immediate one. The action is going to be on Blue's side of the board for a while. I'm far from sure (as usual) but this sounds like a... D+P

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