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OLM Th 09/29/11

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 30 September 2011, at 5:16 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Th 09/29/11 (Jason Lee)

Paying now definitely looks wrong to me, because besides the usual chances to roll doubles in FRAM positions, there are many other sequences where we won't have to pay (much) when we clear the outfield point.

That still leaves the choice of hitting loose on the acepoint, trying for more gammons. Additionally that play takes the sting out of being forced to do that in the future under less desirable circumstances. But it's really the gammons that argue for this play. (Well, unless the hit actually wins more games in total...) Finally there are the quiet plays involving 9/5 plus either 5/4 or 4/3.

If we hit loose and get hit back, only 1-5 of opp's hitting rolls fails to cover a homeboard blot, leaving us two entering points (one of which usually contains a blot).

In simple risk vs. reward, we risk 26 to gain 15 which is better than standard $ of risking 2 to gain 1. The more I think/talk, the more I like the hit. After hitting, though, we don't want to put a checker within 6 of our 3-point. The prime is of marginal improvement and the direct shot could be a game-changer.

5/1*, 4/3

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