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OLM Fr 09/30/11

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 1 October 2011, at 2:40 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Fr 09/30/11 (Jason Lee)

The scenario where opp gets to the edge of our prime (or even jumps it) this turn is close to equally likely whether we hit or not. If we hit, we definitely gain on the 16/36 fans. We get sent back about 1/3 of the time, but all but 1-1 keeps opp trapped. If we don't hit, opp makes his barpoint 6/36. The times we do get sent back (after hitting) are somewhat offset by the times we get sent to the bar by opp's shift or loose hit on his acepoint when we don't hit.

If you consider opp's hitting us in his board a positive for him, then there are only 7/36 rolls which don't gain for him if we leave the blot on our acepoint alone. Compare that to the 16/36 where he fans after we hit.

It appears to me that we are better off hitting:

25/24, 5/1*

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