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OLM Sa 10/01/11

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 2 October 2011, at 4:56 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 10/01/11 (Jason Lee)

An argument could be made for holding the 5-prime and leaving the acepoint blotted, but I don't think that argument is strong enough. So 24/18, 7/1 looks like half of our play.

The safest continuation is to get out of hitting range with both remaining blots, making the full play 24/12, 7/1(2). I'm going to guess that play wins 90% total (with the cube in play) and 12% gammons.

The most aggressive continuation is to leave the blot on the 7-point and bring the last two checkers in our outfield to the 3-point. (Full play 24/18, 7/1, 9/3[2].) That gives us three builders for the 2-point. (Most of the time we'll have to wait a roll to use those builders since 2's and 5's are duplicated -- hitting and building.)

The tweener play is to stay blotted on the 18-point but not on the 7-point. (Full play 24/18, 7/1[2], 9/3.) Then we have two immediate builder for the 2-point but now with nearly full duplication.

In either of the last two cases we get hit 5/36 (14%) of the time. I think only 1-1 and 6-1 rolls save us (not sure about 2-1 roll) if we get hit, and opp has the option of playing on if we fan. For simplicity sake let's just call all hits simple losses. Those are incremental losses (over and above the losses that occur when we don't get hit immediately), and we need to compare those to incremental gammon wins that we pick up. Based upon the matchscore I think the break-even trade is 26 gammons for every 15 losses, so that's roughly 24% gammon wins for 14% losses.

If opp fans (70% of the time) we hit in the outfield 30/36 = 5/6, so multiplying those two means we hit 3.5/6 or 7/12 or 58%. Let's say we win a gammon half of those ==> 29% gammons. But we were going to win gammon anyway on some of those (about 1 in 9) so now we're down to 26% increase when we need 24% to justify playing aggressively. It looks close.

How about the super-aggressive extra blot/builder? That play probably doesn't affect wins as much as it affects gammons (both ways). Since "tweeners are usually wrong" I'm going all out. Won't be surprised if I'm alone on this one.

24/18, 7/1, 9/3(2)

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