This position actually arose at 7a5a where the decision is closer. For money the banana split seems to cost too much. Change the roll to 21, though, and it's a different story.
First the rollout of the posted position:
      
 
         
 | | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 31 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 97
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-aBBBBBC---A-----------caA:1:1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/24* 7/4 | eq: +0.885 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 76.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.72% (G:1.31% B:0.23%) | Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.875...+0.895)
Duration: 18 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24* 24/21 | eq: +0.871 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.99% (G:1.48% B:0.25%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.864...+0.878)
Duration: 11 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/24* 11/8 | eq: +0.870 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 74.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
25.29% (G:1.30% B:0.23%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.861...+0.879)
Duration: 8 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/24* 4/1* | eq: +0.849 (-0.036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.93% (G:3.72% B:0.63%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.836...+0.862)
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Then the rollout of the same position at 7a5a:
| | White is Player 1
score: 2
pip: 31 | | 7 point match | pip: 97
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-aBBBBBC---A-----------caA:1:1:1:31:0:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/24* 4/1* | eq: +0.927 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.70% (G:3.78% B:1.35%) | Conf: ± 0.015 (+0.912...+0.942)
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24* 7/4 | eq: +0.908 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 76.34% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.66% (G:1.47% B:0.36%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.900...+0.916)
Duration: 21 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
And finally, back to money, but with a roll of 21:
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 31 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 97
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-aBBBBBC---A-----------caA:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/24* 3/1* | eq: +0.901 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 76.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.17% (G:2.61% B:0.48%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.888...+0.914)
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24* 7/5 | eq: +0.878 (-0.023) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 76.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.79% (G:1.37% B:0.23%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.870...+0.886)
Duration: 18 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/24* 24/22 | eq: +0.876 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 75.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.79% (G:1.52% B:0.28%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.868...+0.884)
Duration: 11 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21