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OLM Tu 10/04/11 #2

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 5 October 2011, at 7:57 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 10/04/11 #2 (Jason Lee)

With a poor roll such as this, it is often correct to, "put 'em where they belong." The pure play here is to make the four point, unstacking Blue's 6pt, while making a strong inner board point.

Consider that nearly all of Magriel's criteria for making a bold play are present:

  • Blue trails in the race.
  • Blue has 2 checkers back to White's 1.
  • Blue has the best advanced anchor possible. White has none.
  • White has a blot in his home board.
  • Home board strength is a draw.

The problem with leaving a double shot is that White has perfect diversification. White would have 1 and 6 to hit, and 2, 3 and 4 to cover. His hit-and-cover numbers would be: 12, 13, 14, 62, 63, 64 and 33 (13 shots). In addition, White could double hit when he rolls 51. And this ignores the many other hits White might have that do not allow him to cover. White would have 23 hitting numbers in all.

The alternative is the quiet 13/7, preserving the status quo.

It's still early. Let's take a chance.

My vote: 8/4, 6/4.

Mike

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