| |
BGonline.org Forums
races and doubles at matchplay
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: races and doubles at matchplay (PINO)
Date: Sunday, 9 October 2011, at 11:57 p.m.
Right, if you are 11-away you can take more freely if your opponent is odd-away than even-away, particularly when your opponent is 7-away, 5-away or 3-away.
The reason is not that your opponent gains by going from odd-away to even-away, particularly to 6-away, 4-away and 2-away -- although he does, since the one won point he wins decreases the number of games he must win to win the match by one (assuming all subsequent games are single wins on a 2-cube).
The reason is that your opponent gains relatively less by going from even-away -- which he attains when you pass an initial double when he is odd-away -- to odd-away -- which he attains when you take and lose the 2-cube. Whether he is 6-away or 5-away, or 4-away or 3-away, he needs the same number of no-gammon wins with a cube value of 2 to win the match. Since your opponent gains relatively less from going from even-away to odd-away, and what he gains equals what you risk by taking, your take point is relatively lower when opponent is odd-away because your risk is lower.
11-away difference Your take is less risky when take/pass makes Opponent even-away 1-away 96.6442 2.7131 Your take risks only 2.7131% when Opponent is 3-away 2-away 93.9311 4.4894 3-away 89.4417 4.0462 Your take risks only 4.0462% when Opponent is 5-away 4-away 85.3955 5.1223 5-away 80.2732 4.9305 Your take risks only 4.9305% when Opponent is 7-away 6-away 75.3427 5.3218 7-away 70.0209 5.031 8-away 64.9899 5.1973 9-away 59.7926 4.9379 10-away 54.8547 4.8547 11-away 50.0000
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.