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Blitz in Madison

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 3 September 2007, at 12:33 a.m.

In Response To: Blitz in Madison (neilkaz)

Here's a gimme: Sean is taking.

67.5% takepoint between equal opponents.

White's best winning scenario is fan, 6-x which happens 21% of the time (not gin but pretty good start). So he needs another 11% from everything else.

How about fan, break, fan, 6-x: (25/36)*(25/36)*(16/36)*(11/36) or 48% of 21% or 10%. This is starting to look close. (But maybe we need to look at second order effects, like run and get hit vs. run and get missed.)

One shortcut which plays in -- the longer the status stays quo'ed, the worse White's position gets.

Given that White's bearoff isn't going to be a cinch in his best case scenario, I'm guessing a high 20's win rate and a pass (between equal opponents).

Messages In This Thread

• Blitz in Madison
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 2 September 2007, at 7:01 p.m.
  • Blitz in Madison
    Mislav Radica -- Sunday, 2 September 2007, at 8:53 p.m.
  • Blitz in Madison
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 12:33 a.m.
  • Blitz in Madison
    garyo -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 4:35 a.m.
    • Blitz in Madison
      Keene -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 7:26 a.m.
  • Blitz in Madison
    Caryl Stephanson -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 4:08 p.m.
  • Rollout
    neilkaz -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 4:12 p.m.
    • Rollout
      garyo -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 4:24 p.m.