Mr. Stick wrote, "The explanation for #2 misses the point."
Thanks, Mr. Stick. I humbly admit (as one of the most humble people on the planet) that I was wrong on at least three issues here, and possibly many more:
(1) I was wrong about how to play 21 in the original position when it came up over the board.
(2) I was wrong in giving my explanation about White's stripped 8pt. That was a minor contributing factor, but not the main point. Blue loses far fewer gammons on the 23pt (14% vs 18%) than on the 24pt.
(3) Evidently, I was also wrong in assuming that 90% of all players would know as little as I did and would make the same whopper I did.
I am glad I made my post and I am glad Mr. Stick responded, because I have learned something, although I am sure that even now, my knowledge of the topic does not compete with Mr. Stick's.
I am posting four positions below with the XG+ eval. The first is Mr. Stick's position (for money instead of at the score), the second is Mr. Stick's position at DMP, the third is a variation, with 11 to be played for money and the fourth is the same variation at DMP.
Position 1.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----A-EbC----Da-acce----AA:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 24/23 | eq: -0.766 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.95% (G:5.32% B:0.18%)
70.05% (G:13.95% B:0.55%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24 6/4 | eq: -0.845 (-0.079) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.67% (G:5.46% B:0.18%)
70.33% (G:17.96% B:0.95%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
Position 2.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | | 1 point match | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----A-EbC----Da-acce----AA:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/22 | eq: -0.387 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.63% (G:5.42% B:0.20%)
69.37% (G:25.87% B:1.03%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24 6/4 | eq: -0.388 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.62% (G:5.81% B:0.23%)
69.38% (G:23.78% B:1.43%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 24/23 | eq: -0.388 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.59% (G:5.71% B:0.20%)
69.41% (G:18.03% B:0.95%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 6/5 | eq: -0.406 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.72% (G:5.65% B:0.21%)
70.28% (G:29.23% B:1.40%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: eXtremeGammon
Position 3.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=------FbC----Da-acce----AA:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 24/23 6/5 | eq: -0.738 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.61% (G:5.62% B:0.19%)
69.39% (G:14.09% B:0.54%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24 6/5(3) | eq: -0.771 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.98% (G:6.03% B:0.21%)
69.02% (G:17.11% B:0.85%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 6/5(2) | eq: -0.786 (-0.048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.31% (G:5.99% B:0.19%)
67.69% (G:21.57% B:0.56%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
Position 4.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | | 1 point match | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=------FbC----Da-acce----AA:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 6/5(2) | eq: -0.347 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.67% (G:5.99% B:0.22%)
67.33% (G:23.70% B:0.73%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24 6/5(3) | eq: -0.363 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.83% (G:6.15% B:0.23%)
68.17% (G:24.12% B:1.25%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | Bar/22 6/5 | eq: -0.372 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.41% (G:5.55% B:0.21%)
68.59% (G:25.82% B:1.03%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24 13/12 6/5(2) | eq: -0.376 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.22% (G:5.91% B:0.22%)
68.78% (G:24.56% B:1.63%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 24/23 6/5 | eq: -0.378 (-0.032) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.08% (G:5.68% B:0.22%)
68.92% (G:16.91% B:0.80%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: eXtremeGammon