Here's a conversation you hear all the time: "Gosh, you won't believe how unlucky I was! I give my opp a 4-cube at 7-away, 7-away. It's a pass but of course he takes it and two rolls later he sends back a speculative 8-cube for the match! I have to take and then he rolls his best and wins. I should have been up 4-2/9 if he does the right thing. Instead I lose." Reality: initial cube White errs by 0.15. Second cube Blue errs by 0.06 (twice the rollout result because the cube is going to 4, not 2). Then both players make the correct decisions on the last cube. Net 0.09 error by (the lamenting) White.
I have no idea what my opp said after this match but I wouldn't be surprised if he told such a story. (BTW, he's a nice guy and decent player. No reason for me to post his name, particularly because someone might associate the above fictional account with him.)
Rollout interpretation: The position after White's forced play is exactly the original position after a take. Multiply the equity (-0.575) by 2 (to account for the cube having been turned) giving -1.15 or an 0.15 error to take this.
The score (after 0 games) is: JellyFish 2, Player2 2 (match to 9 points)
Move number 7: JellyFish to play 41
Pip counts: JellyFish 158, Player2 109
Position ID: cM/nAADLugDAaA Match ID: AQEmASAAEAAA
• JellyFish moves bar/24 bar/21
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | 1 | R | bar/24 bar/21 | -0.5748 | ||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 360 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1072707968 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||