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OLM Mo 10/17/11

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 18 October 2011, at 2:41 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Mo 10/17/11 (Jason Lee)

(Some of this may have been discussed during the cube decision a couple days ago.)

I think our redoubling window is ~63%-75% cubeless GWC. Ironically the eight rolls I see which give us our best winning chances also bring some gammons into the picture.

Opp has a better board (quantitatively) and currently the pipcount lead. We'd have to hit both checkers to wrest the latter away from him, although pips aren't the whole picture in races and his wastage is significant. Our efficient four-block of his anchor is our big longterm asset.

Six rolls miss both blots: {44, 55, 54, 52} but at least they leave no shots. The only hitting rolls I see which give us concern are 4-2 and (particularly) 4-1. But in the rare cases we get hit we enter immediately 5/9 of the time.

We certainly have chances to pick up the two blots even if we don't succeed on the first try. I'm not 100% sure this is even a take (so some Woolsey Rule equity, which isn't nearly as valuable against a bot :). I'm shipping.

Redouble

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