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Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 5 September 2007, at 1:21 a.m.

In Response To: Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home (Bill Riles)

Depending upon your MET, takepoint is around 24% +-0.2%. Let's see if that matters.

To win, it must go nDn or nNnD where n=31/36, N=30/36(=5/6), and D is 6/36(=1/6). Note 31/36 is very close to 86%. Also note that nNnD (multiplied out) is same as nDnN. Thus the chances for White to win are nDn(1+N) = 0.86*(1/6)*0.86*(11/6). But we can make a further shortcut: 0.86 ~= 6/7. So it's (6/7)*(1/6)*(6/7)*(11/6) = 11/49 (since all sixes cancel), which ain't enough.

BTW, there may be an even faster shortcut. If all doubles played for both players then it's about 21.5%. (I can't ever remember exactly but it's 21 and change.) If Ray considers himself the better player (gee, what what the chances of THAT are!) then he's going to figure there can't be enough vig in the extra double (all doubs for him vs. only 5/6 for David) that he doesn't need to do the calc.

Messages In This Thread

• Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home
  Bill Riles -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 6:33 p.m.
  • Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 7:49 p.m.
  • Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home -- OTB Play
    Bill Riles -- Monday, 3 September 2007, at 9:30 p.m.
    • Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home -- OTB Play
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 4 September 2007, at 12:44 a.m.
      • Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home -- OTB Play
        Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 4 September 2007, at 1:04 a.m.
        • Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home -- OTB Play
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 4 September 2007, at 1:09 a.m.
        • Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home -- OTB Play
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 4 September 2007, at 4:33 a.m.
    • Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home -- OTB Play
      Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 5 September 2007, at 1:30 a.m.
  • Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 4 September 2007, at 12:10 a.m.
  • Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home
    Keene -- Tuesday, 4 September 2007, at 2:14 p.m.
    • Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 4 September 2007, at 2:51 p.m.
      • Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home
        Keene -- Tuesday, 4 September 2007, at 2:59 p.m.
  • Masterful in Madison -- Try This at Home
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 5 September 2007, at 1:21 a.m.