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OT: Zeus question for Chuck

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 17 November 2011, at 1:00 a.m.

In Response To: OT: Zeus question for Chuck (Gregg Cattanach)

Didn't mean to keep the few of you who care about this hanging. Pretty good BoE calc by Joe.

NO's (earlier) decision was ~16% GWC error to punt. Atlanta's was a bit more at ~17% (error if punt, but no error for their decision to go for it).

I'm using pregame expectations for team performance inputs, adjusted for home-field-advantage (Atlanta's). We don't have a "4th and inches" input, only 4th and 1 from NFL logs (where I believe this means distance-to-first-down < 1.5 yards).

NFL teams convert 4th & 1 with ~75% success rate and 3rd and 1 at about 73% success rate -- statistically consistent between the two -- when at least 20 yards away from the goalline. (Both of these are for running plays, which the defense usually expects. Passes aren't as good, historically -- and likely the defenses know this.)

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