[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

A simple ace pt game

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 17 November 2011, at 2:04 a.m.

In Response To: A simple ace pt game (Dmitriy Obukhov)

If Blue doubles then White will autorecube and there's no way Blue will drop the redouble. So White's raw take point is 22% and her gammon value is 1. No recube vig of course.

How much danger is there of Blue getting gammoned here? It looks pretty low. Most of Blue's gammons will, I think, come from being forced to leave a shot while trying to clear the midpoint and getting hit. But I think that quite a few of Blue's rolls will cause him to pay now from the midpoint. I'm not going to sit here and go through all of Blue's rolls and try to figure out whether to pay now or later in each case, but let's say Blue pays now in every case where it looks plausible. After all, White has two blots in her board. Blue will typically get gammoned only if he's hit immediately and White covers and succeeds in containing the blot while escaping her back checkers. It looks pretty unlikely. If paying now isn't always right then I think that just means Blue's gammon-losing chances are even lower than I envisage.

Assuming that Blue's gammon losses are low, can White take? It's not clear to me. Blue does have that awkward gap in his board and White's timing for an ace-point game isn't bad. Also White doesn't care about getting gammoned if she takes. But can White win 22% (or maybe slightly lower if we factor in her small gammon chances)? Maybe, but I'd be quite surprised if she wins much more than that and I suspect she wins less. I'd pass as White.

Is Blue too good? It doesn't take too much to be too good at this score. Blue does have reasonable gammon chances if he hits White's blot. However, if we assume that I'm right that White should pass here, those pay now-or-later decisions that I mentioned earlier could make Blue regret not cashing now. It could be TG but I'd send the cube over and be pretty happy with either a pass or a take.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.