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A simple ace pt game

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 17 November 2011, at 6:27 p.m.

In Response To: A simple ace pt game (David Kettler)

David Kettler wrote:

I don't think a bad double ever becomes a good one because your opponent MIGHT make a mistake.

It depends on what you mean by "good" and "bad." Objectively, a double is bad if it loses equity for you against a strong opponent. But as a practical matter, you will typically get superior results if you exploit your opponent's weaknesses. If you don't know your opponent very well then it can be risky to play unsoundly because they might respond correctly and then your gamble won't pay off. But if you know something about your opponent—and often you can glean quite a bit of information about your opponent just in the course of playing a single match, if you're alert—then you can profit from this information.

For example, one player in my playing circle is excessively cautious with the cube. My take/pass decisions against him are typically very easy because he almost never doubles until the game is practically gin for him. He's also very quick to drop when the position looks dangerous for him. Sometimes I'll get into a position against him (such as a blitz) that I know is technically ND/T but I'm pretty sure he'll drop. I believe that sending the cube over in such situations is the right thing to do. If I wait, the position might improve for him and even he might see that it's a take, and I'll have missed my opportunity to collect a point. If he does unexpectedly take my double, then I might still be in good shape because he probably won't recube when he's supposed to.

Similarly, if someone is a deep taker, then it may be advisable for you to hold on to the cube in a position that is technically D/T or even D/P, if you're very confident that he will take next turn anyway even if you've technically "lost your market." The only buyer in the market that you care about is your opponent, and if he's going to buy tomorrow no matter what, then you can't lose your market no matter what the computer says.

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