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Rollout Result

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 20 November 2011, at 5:31 p.m.

In Response To: A Not-So-Fortuitous 42 in a Backgame (Paul Weaver)

In the actual game, the score was Blue -4, White -1, Crawford. When I rolled out the same position at the match score, 20/16 5/3* won by such a huge margin that I thought it would have a chance to win in a money game rollout.

Trailing in a match, Blue should play 20/16 5/3* here, but leading in a match, Blue should play 20/16 6/4. Notice the statistics: Blue wins 38% after 20/16 5/3* but only 35% after 20/16 6/4. Blue, of course, loses a lot more gammons after hitting, but he also wins more Gs by hitting.

I never considered 20/16 5/3*, and I never considered considering it.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 180 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aBBD---A-a-c--cbcCbB-A-:1:1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 42

1.	Rollout1	20/16 5/3*	eq: -0.290
	Player: Opponent: 38.21% (G:7.58% B:0.30%) 61.79% (G:27.60% B:1.44%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.292...-0.287) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 hours 16 minutes
2.	Rollout1	20/16 6/4	eq: -0.296 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 34.88% (G:6.21% B:0.20%) 65.12% (G:18.21% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.298...-0.294) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes
3.	Rollout2	20/16 10/8	eq: -0.310 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 35.41% (G:6.14% B:0.21%) 64.59% (G:20.71% B:0.88%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.315...-0.305) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 56 seconds
4.	Rollout2	24/22 20/16	eq: -0.327 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 33.66% (G:5.61% B:0.18%) 66.34% (G:17.56% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.332...-0.322) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 41 seconds
1 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Messages In This Thread

• A Not-So-Fortuitous 42 in a Backgame
  Paul Weaver -- Saturday, 19 November 2011, at 11:29 p.m.
  • A Not-So-Fortuitous 42 in a Backgame
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 19 November 2011, at 11:48 p.m.
  • A Not-So-Fortuitous 42 in a Backgame
    Mr Majestyk -- Sunday, 20 November 2011, at 12:47 a.m.
  • A Not-So-Fortuitous 42 in a Backgame
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 20 November 2011, at 1:30 a.m.
  • A Not-So-Fortuitous 42 in a Backgame
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 20 November 2011, at 6:59 a.m.
  • A Not-So-Fortuitous 42 in a Backgame
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 20 November 2011, at 8:40 a.m.
  • Rollout Result
    Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 20 November 2011, at 5:31 p.m.
    • Rollout Result
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 20 November 2011, at 7:50 p.m.
    • Rollout Result
      Stick -- Monday, 21 November 2011, at 7:47 a.m.
      • Rollout Result
        Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 21 November 2011, at 8:15 a.m.
    • Rollout Result
      leobueno -- Monday, 21 November 2011, at 10:40 p.m.
    • 4ply/XGR+ Rollout
      Stick -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 3:12 a.m.
  • All Rolls are Fortuitous
    Colin Owen -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 5:30 p.m.
    • All Rolls are Fortuitous
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 5:50 p.m.
      • All Rolls are Fortuitous
        Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 11:34 p.m.
    • All Rolls are Fortuitous
      Stick -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 6:31 p.m.
      • All Rolls are Fortuitous
        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 7:09 p.m.
        • All Rolls are Fortuitous
          Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 22 November 2011, at 8:35 p.m.
      • All Rolls are Fortuitous
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 29 November 2011, at 10:33 p.m.